A bit of the potential offshore wind initiatives around the globe taking key FIDs this 12 months are danger, an analyst has mentioned.
Some 30-32 gigawatts of improvement stay within the potential pipeline for last funding choices this 12 months, mentioned Westwood International.
Nevertheless, at a webinar final week, head of Power Transition at Westwood, David Linden, mentioned “a bit of that’s beginning to look extra in danger”.
There’s already been sturdy FIDs by way of the primary half of 2023 – some 9.4GW – throughout China, Taiwan and Europe.
However there have been a sequence of current cancellations and pushbacks, together with within the UK.
In March, Orsted (CPH: ORSTED) warned that the £8bn Hornsea Three wind farm is in danger with out tax breaks.
The Danish developer cited the current Electrical energy Mills Levy imposed by the UK Authorities, which suggests building and financing are now not viable on previously-agreed phrases.
“That’s a major one,” mentioned Linden.
“Floating took a gigawatt blow when Trollvind was placed on maintain.
“And North America was anticipated to make a major contribution globally this 12 months, however now a number of initiatives want to be amended or renegotiate their routes to market.”
Westwood highlighted a number of examples in North America, together with Shell and Ocean Winds’ JV terminating PPAs for the SouthCoast improvement.
In June, Equinor and BP additionally sought revised monetary preparations for his or her New York initiatives Empire Wind and Beacon Wind.
Elsewhere, Shell is contemplating the sale of its Eolfi French floating wind unit.
“There are some cracks starting to point out. Tasks are being reassessed, portfolios being reshuffled and re-focused,” mentioned Linden.
A “glimmer of hope” got here in current days when Orsted’s Ocean Wind One mission in New Jersey acquired federal approval.
Key offshore wind FIDs to look out for
Westwood set out a sequence of key FIDs to look out for this 12 months – Hornsea Three in Q4 is amongst them.
Within the UK, that features the 72-turbine Inch Cape wind farm deliberate for 10 miles off the coast of Angus in Scotland.
The 1GW mission, anticipated for FID is Q3, is owned by an equal three way partnership between Eire’s ESB and Edinburgh-based Crimson Rock Energy – the latter agency being owned by China’s SDIC.
ScottishPower Renewables’ East Anglia Three, a 1.4GW improvement 42 miles east of the Suffolk coast is one other FID to look at, additionally anticipated in Q3.
As soon as operational, anticipated in 2026, the 95-turbine improvement will generate sufficient inexperienced energy for greater than 1.3m properties.
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