Immediately, California took one other necessary step in planning for the transition to scrub vitality, a step that’s been a very long time coming.
To succeed in the state’s objectives of 100% clear electrical energy and economy-wide carbon neutrality by 2045, the California Public Utilities Fee (CPUC) has been tasked with planning the clear electrical energy transition by way of its Built-in Useful resource Planning (IRP) course of. The CPUC has a big quantity of discretion over the method; for instance, the CPUC can select to what extent and by when electrical energy suppliers should scale back their emissions.
Which brings me to the largest information of the day: in the end, the CPUC has set an much more formidable emissions discount goal.
That is vital as a result of the CPUC is lastly being extra aware of the pressing want to cut back international warming emissions, charting a sooner course to 100% clear electrical energy. Nonetheless, the CPUC is sort of a large ship; as soon as it will get entering into a sure course, it takes a number of effort and time to alter course. Immediately’s choice within the IRP course of represents a milestone in an extended, sweeping flip. However the flip just isn’t but over.
There are two optimistic steps that the CPUC took on this choice, however there are additionally two areas the place extra work is badly wanted and lengthy overdue.
Optimistic step #1: CPUC units a decrease international warming emissions goal
Immediately, the CPUC selected a extra formidable emissions goal than it has ever chosen earlier than. California’s general plan to decarbonize your entire financial system doesn’t embrace a precise emissions goal that the electrical energy sector should obtain; as an alternative, the plan has a variety. That implies that it’s as much as the CPUC to determine how shortly to cut back emissions from the grid.
The CPUC acquired off to a disappointing begin roughly 4 years in the past when it chosen a weak emissions discount goal and deliberate to cut back electrical energy sector emissions right down to 46 million metric tons (MMT) by 2030. (For reference, 2021 electrical energy sector emissions in California have been roughly 60 MMT.) Over time, the CPUC has step by step ratcheted down the 2030 goal, decreasing it to 38 MMT two years in the past, and decreasing it as soon as extra to 30 MMT with at the moment’s choice.
It took too lengthy, however the CPUC has lastly arrived on the 30 MMT emissions goal for which UCS actively advocated over the previous few years, together with different teams. There have been a number of components that led to this choice, however encouragingly, many electrical energy suppliers are already planning to cut back their emissions consistent with the decrease goal, and the prices of assembly the decrease goal with extra clear assets have been comparatively small (due partly to federal Inflation Discount Act incentives). And I’ve to say, it introduced a smile to my face after I discovered that not a single group concerned within the IRP course of objected to the decrease goal. Once more, it took too lengthy, but it surely’s a promising signal that everybody is now on board!
![](https://blog.ucsusa.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/ghg-reduction-graph-801x600.jpg)
Optimistic step #2: CAISO will research fuel plant retirements
One other encouraging side of this choice is that the CPUC has requested the California Unbiased System Operator (CAISO, the grid operator in most of California) to review a sensitivity state of affairs that features a little over 9 gigawatts (GW) of fuel energy plant retirements by 2035 and greater than 15 GW of retirements by 2039. With roughly 40 GW of fuel capability at present in California, 15 GW is a large chunk of the general fleet.
As a part of the IRP course of, the CPUC frequently passes alongside situations for the CAISO to review in its transmission planning course of. The sensitivity situations aren’t often used as the premise for transmission funding selections, however sensitivities can present invaluable data for future planning processes. On this case, the fuel retirements sensitivity will allow the CAISO to get a significantly better deal with on the quantity and prices of transmission upgrades that might be required to allow excessive ranges of fuel plant retirements. This data can be utilized in future planning processes to plan for retirements in rather more element.
This growth has additionally been a very long time within the making. Beginning with our Turning Down the Gasoline in California evaluation in 2018, UCS has been pushing the CPUC to do extra considerate, proactive planning for fuel plant retirements. To be truthful, the CPUC has made some progress on this over time, however this sensitivity research is the largest step to this point.
Subsequent step #1: Establishing procurement necessities
One of many essential areas of labor that wants rather more consideration from the CPUC is establishing procurement necessities to make sure that California electrical energy suppliers meet their IRP objectives. Setting objectives and planning for the clear vitality transition is necessary, however what actually issues is following by means of on these plans.
12 months after yr, I’ve watched with rising concern as the information is available in on the earlier yr’s international warming emissions. A lot to my dismay, emissions from California’s electrical energy sector haven’t actually budged since 2017. The CPUC simply set an much more formidable purpose for 2030 emissions reductions, and there are actually solely six years left to ship.
Till now, the CPUC has solely applied advert hoc procurement necessities within the IRP course of, practically all with the specific purpose of shoring up grid reliability. UCS has lengthy advocated for a extra systematic method to procurement to make sure that California achieves all of the objectives of the IRP course of, together with grid reliability and emissions reductions.
The excellent news is that the CPUC has already began to suppose by means of how one can construction IRP procurement necessities. The dangerous information is that, after asking for stakeholder suggestions on the varied choices into account, it’s been absolute crickets from the CPUC for over a yr now. With a lot work to do between now and 2030, it’s important for the CPUC to determine sturdy procurement necessities ASAP. In any other case, California dangers falling brief on its local weather objectives.
![](https://blog.ucsusa.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/IRP-buildout-1000x433.jpg)
Subsequent step #2: Locational planning for fuel plant retirements
The CPUC additionally must get rather more refined in its planning for fuel plant retirements on a extra localized stage. Whereas there have been loads of fuel plant retirements within the first half of the 2010s, there haven’t been many lately due primarily to reliability issues. Nonetheless, the IRP modeling reveals that, as California builds an increasing number of clear assets, roughly 2.7 GW of fuel capability will now not be wanted as early as 2026.
The CPUC may simply let fuel vegetation shut down willy-nilly, leaving market forces and grid reliability necessities as the only real components figuring out which vegetation shut down. Alternatively, the CPUC may prioritize fuel plant retirements in California’s deprived communities by proactively planning to deliver substitute assets on-line, which might enable specific vegetation to close down. Data from the sensitivity research I discussed earlier (with 15 GW of fuel retirements) is also instrumental in figuring out transmission options that allow fuel plant retirements particularly areas. All in all, any such locational planning is badly wanted and lengthy overdue.
UCS continues to press for locational planning for fuel plant retirements to assist make sure the transition to scrub vitality is equitable and simply. And I particularly admire the tireless advocacy of associate organizations which have led the cost on this difficulty. (I’m taking a look at you, California Environmental Justice Alliance and Sierra Membership. Thanks!)
IRP guides the transition to scrub electrical energy
California’s IRP course of has many objectives for the state’s electrical energy grid: decreasing international warming emissions, making certain grid reliability, retaining down the prices of electrical energy, minimizing native air pollution with early precedence on deprived communities, and the record goes on. This course of is the place all of it comes collectively, the place California’s electrical energy suppliers look forward 10 to fifteen years into the long run and craft a plan to fulfill all these targets.
Critically, that is the venue the place the CPUC ensures that electrical energy suppliers are planning to construct sufficient photo voltaic, wind, vitality storage, and different clear assets to fulfill California’s emissions discount targets. With a lot accountability, the CPUC’s selections can have vital penalties for the way forward for California’s grid.
The CPUC has taken optimistic steps with its choice at the moment, and the large ship that’s the CPUC is certainly slowly delivering the precise course. However the lengthy, sweeping flip isn’t over but, because the CPUC should now prioritize essential subsequent steps. The success of an equitable and simply clear vitality transition in California is determined by it.