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One of many attention-grabbing issues I’ve been doing is taking part in a evaluation group for a European research on heavy automobile decarbonization comparisons and simulations. Meaning, amongst different issues, that I’m poking on the assumptions getting used.
Because the paper is in evaluation and assumptions are being examined and improved, I received’t determine the writer or group presently. This isn’t about them being incorrect or proper, however a few bunch of assumptions being made about gasoline cell heavy automobile upkeep that don’t stand as much as scrutiny, but are in a number of research which might be thought-about credible.
Let’s begin with first ideas. A heavy responsibility gasoline cell automobile like a freight truck or transit bus is a battery electrical automobile with added gasoline cell drive prepare elements. That implies that the battery energy prepare has batteries, an electrical energy charging system with no shifting elements besides the flap over the plug, an influence administration unit to maneuver electrical energy throughout wires to the motor, and a motor. There are sensors, computerized controls and the like, however only a few shifting elements and little or no that requires a lot upkeep. That’s born out by upkeep research of pure battery electrical autos.
A gasoline cell automobile is a battery hydrogen hybrid automobile. It provides a complicated 700 environment hydrogen tank or an much more refined liquid hydrogen tank with stress sensor and reduction techniques, a fancy hydrogen gasoline motion system which has to cope with very massive stress modifications within the case of the pressurized tanks or very massive quantity and therefore stress modifications as liquid hydrogen is warmed to gaseous kind, very massive thermal administration challenges and therefore thermal administration sensors, actuators and elements in each instances, an costly and life-limited gasoline cell which requires pure hydrogen and and clear air, an air consumption and filtering system in consequence and an exhaust system for shifting the resultant water from the gasoline cell out of the automobile with out freezing therefore a heating resolution.
![Schematic of just air management system for fuel cell vehicle courtesy US DOE](https://cleantechnica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Screenshot-2024-01-26-at-3.37.47 PM.png)
This diagram of simply the air administration course of, which isn’t required for battery electrical autos bear in mind, ought to make it clear {that a} gasoline cell automobile’s added elements are non-trivial. There are various extra factors of potential failure and lots of extra issues that require scheduled upkeep.
The closest instance is hybrid electrical autos. The info from gentle autos reveals that upkeep on the drive prepare prices much more on hybrid autos than on pure battery electrical autos, about the identical as inner combustion autos.
One of many issues I criticized the Worldwide Council on Clear Transportation’s deeply flawed trucking research about final 12 months was that that they had vital upkeep value enhancements for hydrogen drive prepare vehicles and none for battery electrical vehicles. In truth, they assumed that heavy responsibility, long-range vehicles — the one section the place some organizations nonetheless maintain out hope for gasoline cells — would have very comparable upkeep prices to battery electrical after 2030, and equal upkeep prices to diesel vehicles instantly.
The numbers are all in euros per 100 kilometers.
![Table of maintenance costs for heavy trucks from ICCT total cost of ownership report](https://cleantechnica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Screenshot-2024-01-26-at-3.57.11 PM.png)
After I first reviewed it, I used to be scratching my head about giving the good thing about the doubt to maturation of hydrogen gasoline cell vehicles vs battery electrical vehicles. In spite of everything, gasoline cell buses have been working world wide in trials since 2000, and gasoline cell fork lifts for longer. Battery electrical vehicles and buses are comparatively new.
However now I’m scratching my head about why everybody believes hydrogen gasoline cell heavy autos can be low upkeep in any respect.
I’ve been amassing anecdotal knowledge about upkeep prices. The Pau, France fleet operator made it clear once they ditched the hydrogen buses in 2023 after 4 years of operation that that they had been very excessive upkeep, and that holding them operating was a relentless problem.
“The manufacturing station has extra issues than anticipated and the buses have numerous very small breakdowns. As for me, I spend three quarters of my days there though it’s only considered one of 17 traces!”
Equally, the Whistler, BC expertise from a decade earlier discovered double the upkeep prices, per Ballard itself.
In line with Burnaby’s Ballard Energy Methods, which manufactures gasoline cell engines, Whistler’s hydrogen buses value $1.34 per kilometre to take care of, versus 65 cents per kilometre for diesel-powered buses.
Two bus operators, separated by a decade and an ocean, each had an identical experiences with buses from totally different producers. However nonetheless, anecdotal. If that was all the info, I might write it off to a few unhealthy experiences.
However when a rail OEM gross sales govt for Stadler in Germany has this to say about his personal merchandise, I believed one thing was up.
“As well as, hydrogen gasoline cells require considerably extra upkeep than a batteries alone, requiring alternative inside three years on common.
“Due to this and the hydrogen tank on board, the upkeep effort is after all extra complicated in comparison with battery trains,” Obst defined, including that hydrogen trains additionally require a battery for back-up energy.”
Because of this, after I noticed very low upkeep prices assumptions within the research I’m reviewing, I offered this materials and steered that assumptions of just about an identical upkeep prices was inappropriate. The lead researcher pointed on the supply, so I went to that. It was a German working group research, in the identical effort because the research I assessed a few months in the past.
The research, translated due to a really useful on-line webpage which goes to be sending me pleading emails to provide them cash eternally now, was the 2020 Workshop Report Altering the Drive of Industrial Autos: Methods to Decarbonize Extra Troublesome Vehicles with a Concentrate on Electrification from the German Nationwide Platform: The way forward for Mobility effort.
I dove into that anticipating to discover a reference to research and empirical knowledge. What I discovered was that three researchers from two establishments — Wolfgang Schade of M-5 and Patrick Fieltsch and Heike Flamig of the • Technical College of Hamburg had offered upkeep assertions with out reference or citations. There was nothing within the bibliography which may clarify them both. I couldn’t discover every other research in German which may have been the supply, however Googling in German isn’t my prime ability, so I’ll have missed one thing.
So we’ve got ICCT, M-5 and TUHH all asserting what look like low numbers for upkeep and thus far no knowledge or research backing them up.
I went again to the ICCT TCO research to have a look at their upkeep numbers, and it cites one other 2023 publication by the lead writer, so I went to have a look at that research. It factors to a College of California, Davis paper from 2022 by Wang et al, Estimating Upkeep and Restore Prices for Battery Electrical and Gas Cell Heavy Responsibility Vehicles.
Does it have knowledge? No, no it doesn’t. It lists the reviews it drew on, said clearly that there was no knowledge to attract on and that everybody was assuming that gasoline cell vehicles can be about the identical as battery electrical vehicles or perhaps a bit dearer.
Thus far I’m half a dozen reviews in on two continents in two languages and haven’t discovered something besides guess work. However I’ve two quotes from bus fleet operators, a automobile kind that’s strongly adjoining and just like heavy responsibility vehicles with a excessive responsibility cycle, a decade aside making it clear that they very excessive upkeep prices and a quote from a prepare OEM govt who makes it clear that his gasoline cell product’s upkeep prices are a lot larger as effectively. In truth, he says nobody would purchase it except the request for proposal explicitly referred to as for hydrogen trains and nothing else.
This led me to go and have a look at gasoline cell bus upkeep knowledge, with the hope that regardless of the entire failures which have been swept below the carpet within the 25 years that hydrogen buses have been trialed and deserted in dozens of locations world wide, somebody would have really captured some knowledge.
And lo, California got here by. As all the time with the USA, they publish every thing about themselves, making knowledge obtainable for analysts like me to attempt to extrapolate to locations with vastly decrease budgets or any sense that everybody will care about them.
I discovered three research of bus fleets in three totally different transit organizations in California,
This US OSTI research of a fleet of ten gasoline cell buses in Oakland, California for the complete 12 months of 2020 discovered that the common upkeep for distance traveled was a lot larger than the upkeep prices for diesel buses, about 59 cents per mile vs 35 cents per mile. By the way, that was very near the hybrid battery diesel fleet, which was at 62 cents.
This research from Southern California by NREL of of 10 gasoline cell buses for 16 months discovered prices per distance traveled decrease than the OSTI research at 42 cents per mile, however nonetheless larger than the 35 cents per mile diesel baseline. Notably, propulsion associated upkeep was 37.3% of complete.
This NREL research masking six years of upkeep for gasoline cell buses in Riverside County, the long-running Sunline County, Coachella adjoining metropolis, discovered upkeep prices have been 2.5 instances larger for the gasoline cell fleet than the older CNG fleet for the interval, 56 cents per mile or very near the primary research.
A bit extra looking discovered no different empirical knowledge obtainable in English on upkeep prices.
However now the info set is the next:
Bus fleet research from California totaling over eight years between three fleets discovered a lot larger upkeep prices than for a diesel baseline.
Printed articles with quotes from Whistler, BC and Pau, France make it clear that upkeep prices for his or her bus fleets, each the 14 12 months outdated Whistler expertise and the one 12 months outdated Pau expertise have been very excessive. A decade with zero motion shouldn’t be indicative of a maturing trade.
The Stadler govt on report as saying that upkeep prices are a lot larger for his or her model new trains.
To me what seems to be clear is that there are a bunch of transportation researchers who’re all guessing primarily based on actually no proof that clearly extra complicated and failure susceptible hydrogen vehicles can be about the identical as a lot easier battery electrical vehicles, or perhaps slightly dearer. Additional, they’re all assuming that they are going to be less expensive to take care of than diesel vehicles, the place at the very least they’ve the transmission system to level to.
None of them seem to have gone to have a look at upkeep knowledge for carefully adjoining hydrogen buses the place there’s a 25 12 months historical past, or checked out rail operator statements, though that quote was pretty latest. None of them seem to have gone to OEMs which have run trials of hydrogen vehicles and requested about upkeep experiences. None of them seem to have observed the $100,000+ gasoline cell alternative cost a Hyundai automotive proprietor had and began asking questions.
As a reminder, just about all of those buses have Ballard gasoline cells in them, expertise that Ballard has been promoting globally for over 25 years, with losses of $1.3 billion since 2000. This isn’t an immature expertise, it simply fails to commercialize at scale after each single trial.
Like the idea of low-cost inexperienced hydrogen, the idea of low-maintenance gasoline cell vehicles doesn’t stand as much as the slightest of scrutiny. Street freight researchers within the 2010s made some baseless and low-ball assumptions and within the 2020s these assumptions are thought-about legitimate as a result of they’ve been cited so typically.
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