Nonetheless, it’s large-scale battery storage that can dominate the sector’s development narrative in 2024, with EnergyTrend predicting as much as 53GW/128.6GWh of utility-scale installations.
For an thought of scale, the agency stated in December that it anticipated to seek out 52GW/117GWh of latest vitality storage put in throughout all market segments in 2023, whereas the overall determine for 2024 deployments, if factoring in residential and C&I storage as properly, might attain 71GW/167GWh.
The agency’s forecasting seems much more bullish than BloombergNEF’s latest predictions, which in themselves have been hardly conservative and included an expectation for 42GW/99GWh of grid-scale vitality storage deployments throughout 2023.
China estimated to hit 24.8GW/55GWh new installs in 2024
EnergyTrend additionally supplied regional breakouts for the way it sees the 2024 market panorama develop, specializing in China and the US as the key demand centres for large-scale storage, and with a narrower regional deal with the UK, because the standout market inside Europe as we speak.
Speedy adoption of wind and photo voltaic renewable vitality, backed by lively promotion of vitality storage by authorities entities at nationwide and provincial ranges, would additionally contribute to China holding a number one place.
China’s 2024 installs have been estimated by the evaluation agency to achieve 24.8GW output and 55GWh capability, and EnergyTrend hinted that strikes begun in September by central companies to advertise electrical energy storage participation within the spot market might bear fruit.
The US market’s urge for food for large-scale storage can even be sturdy in 2024 on account of a “extremely economical and diversified profitability mannequin,” EnergyTrend stated, with a market break up roughly 70:30 between co-located and standalone storage property. As with China, the expansion of variable renewable vitality (VRE) is a major driver for storage adoption, however the US additionally has weak grid integration nationally making the necessity for storage pressing.
As one other analysis agency, Wooden Mackenzie, additionally famous in latest editions of its quarterly studies on the US vitality storage market, EnergyTrend identified that US set up figures in 2023 have been properly under expectations for quite a lot of causes.
These embody provide chain disruptions, which throughout 2020-2022 have been largely targeted on lithium-ion (Li-Ion) battery provide constraints however throughout 2023 have been extra about lengthy lead gadgets resembling excessive voltage transformers, as Power-Storage.information has heard from quite a few sources together with EPC agency Burns & McDonnell in its response to our end-of-year 2023 Q&A sequence printed as we speak.
Grid connection delays – for which the US is hardly distinctive in experiencing – are additionally having a serious impression, which is being seen in different vitality sectors together with wind and photo voltaic and what EnergyTrend described because the US’ ageing transmission and distribution (T&D) infrastructure shouldn’t be serving to.
Nonetheless, it seems that demand stays agency, helped alongside by the enterprise fashions alluded to above, and naturally, the impression of presidency incentives spearheaded by the introduction of the funding tax credit score (ITC) for standalone vitality storage introduced in with the Inflation Discount Act (IRA) laws.
EnergyTrend is forecasting that large-scale vitality storage installations within the US might attain 11.6GW/38.2GWh in 2023.
Lastly, the analysis agency stated it anticipated the expansion charge of European vitality storage deployment in 2024 to be slower than throughout this 12 months, however didn’t put figures on that expectation in evaluation seen by Power-Storage.information. Regardless of this slowing that EnergyTrend predicted nonetheless, it stated development could be “sturdy” and at a excessive charge.
The corporate did provide its expectations for set up figures within the UK, which continues to be the main storage market in Europe. The nation’s newest future vitality plan printed by its authorities “considerably elevates its short-term vitality storage set up targets,” and speedy short-term development is predicted in a market that EnergyTrend stated might attain 4.2GW/6.4GWh of latest large-scale installs in 2024.
Power-Storage.information has not but seen numbers for anticipated installs within the UK in 2023, however our colleagues at Photo voltaic Media Market Analysis wrote in early 2023 that in 2022, the UK added 800MWh of utility-scale vitality storage capability within the type of Li-Ion battery vitality storage system (BESS) property, once more illustrating that speedy development trajectory.