With lower than two months to go till COP28, the Dubai convention is shaping as much as be some of the intense — and contentious — UN local weather summits to this point. A lot of that controversy has centered on the occasion’s president, Sultan al-Jaber, who spoke yesterday to me and FT colleagues Attracta Mooney and Simeon Kerr about his ambitions for the occasion, whereas pushing again towards his critics.
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Sultan al-Jaber has his work reduce out to silence the critics
Within the tumultuous 28-year historical past of UN local weather summits, maybe no particular person has been such a distinguished human lightning rod for criticism as Sultan al-Jaber, the president of this 12 months’s COP28 in Dubai.
The occasion’s host — the United Arab Emirates, the world’s seventh-biggest oil producer — was at all times going to be fiercely controversial. The choice to have it helmed by Jaber, whilst he continues his tenure as chief govt of the Abu Dhabi Nationwide Oil Firm, added a hefty slug of gas to the flames.
Greater than 100 members of the European parliament and US Congress wrote to the UN in Might to induce that Jaber get replaced, arguing that his position would allow fossil gas corporations to “exert undue affect” on local weather negotiations. Former US vice-president Al Gore adopted up this summer time by lambasting Jaber’s “blatant battle of curiosity” in a extensively considered TED discuss.
In our interview yesterday, Jaber sought to flip this argument on its head. Removed from disqualifying him from the COP presidency, he argued, his highly effective position within the oil business made him uniquely effectively positioned to corral that sector into supporting local weather motion.
Forward of COP28’s kick-off on November 30, Jaber is scrambling to recruit power corporations and different closely emitting companies to his new World Decarbonisation Alliance, which he’s hoping to launch on the convention. Members might want to decide to attaining internet zero carbon emissions from their operations by 2050, and lowering their methane emissions to “close to zero” by the tip of this decade.
Full particulars of the alliance’s commitments nonetheless wanted to be hammered out, Jaber stated, including that greater than 20 oil corporations had already pledged their assist.
“The truth that I’ve been in a position to rework, decarbonise and future-proof Adnoc in such a brief time frame, that provides me full confidence” that the business would have the ability to assist progress in the direction of limiting international warming to 1.5C, Jaber stated.
This declare will infuriate Jaber’s many critics, given Adnoc’s plans to extend its oil and fuel manufacturing through the course of this decade, and its unwillingness to incorporate “scope 3” emissions — from its provide chain and the usage of its merchandise — in its internet zero goal.
However Adnoc has made extra effort to scrub up its act than some massive oil producers — notably by halting routine fuel flaring, by pledging to eradicate all methane emissions from its operations by 2030 and all operational internet carbon emissions by 2045, and by committing $15bn of funding to “low-carbon options” this decade. By difficult laggards to observe Adnoc’s lead, and highlighting which of them do or don’t fall in line, Jaber can pretty declare to be placing strain on probably the most recalcitrant corporations within the sector.
“A phase-down of fossil fuels is inevitable and is crucial,” Jaber stated. “I don’t need this business to be seen in any approach, kind or form [as] going towards the phase-down. That is occurring.”
His selection of language is price scrutinising right here. As I reported from Sharm el-Sheikh final 12 months, the ultimate days of COP27 introduced a late effort by dozens of nations to incorporate within the last declaration a reference to the “phase-down” of all fossil fuels. This proposal was shot down, with some members blaming opposition from Saudi Arabia and different main oil producers. It’s removed from clear whether or not this language has an opportunity of constructing it into the closing textual content this time round — however the COP28 president’s emphatic endorsement, as a senior determine in a significant oil-producing state, is noteworthy.
It’s that closing textual content, and the broader momentum that’s (or is just not) galvanised by the intergovernmental talks, on which Jaber’s COP presidency will probably be judged. Jaber stated he was placing finance on the core of his agenda for the occasion: he would push donor international locations to decide to replenishing the Inexperienced Local weather Fund, and to double their funding for local weather adaptation in poorer international locations.
Following the settlement in precept at COP27 to ascertain a loss and injury fund to assist climate-vulnerable nations, he has vowed to get it up and operating, and safe an settlement on how it will likely be funded. And he needs the occasion to yield progress on blended finance, with governments and multilateral lenders increasing efforts to incentivise climate-related funding from the non-public sector.
No matter progress is achieved on these points, nonetheless, critics will probably be expecting proof to again Gore’s declare that, below the management of Jaber, the COP course of has been “captured” by the fossil gas agenda. One red-hot matter is carbon seize and storage: to its promoters, a expertise that may enable continued use of fossil fuels with out planet-heating emissions; to its doubters, an idea unproven at scale that’s being cynically pushed by the oil and fuel business, diverting funding from really clear power sources.
Jaber defended funding in carbon seize, saying the world ought to “commercialise it and scale it up as a result of it’s one confirmed expertise that may assist cut back and eradicate carbon”. And he urged COP28 members to give attention to attacking “local weather change and emissions”, moderately than a fossil gas business “that has contributed to human prosperity over a whole lot of years”.
However as Jaber himself acknowledged, fossil fuels are on the best way out, in a pattern that governments now have to speed up. To be credible — and restore religion within the UN local weather course of — COP28 might want to make life much more uncomfortable for all however probably the most bold corporations in his sector. (Simon Mundy)
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