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The USDA maintained its forecast for 2023-’24 soybean oil use in biofuel in its newest World Agricultural Provide and Demand Estimates report, launched July 12. The outlook for 2023-’24 soybean manufacturing was decreased.
The USDA presently tasks 2023-’24 soybean manufacturing at 4.3 billion bushels, down 210 million on decrease harvested space. Harvested space, forecast at 83.5 million acres within the June 30 Acreage report, is down 4 million from final month. The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at 52 bushels per acre.
With decrease manufacturing partly offset by larger starting shares, 2023-’24 soybean provides are decreased 185 million bushels. Soybean crush is decreased 10 million bushels reflecting a decrease soybean meal home disappearance forest.
Soybean exports are decreased 125 million bushels to 1.85 billion on decrease U.S. provides and decrease international imports. With decrease provides solely partly offset by decreased use, ending shares for 2023-’24 are projected at 300 million bushels, down 50 million from final month.
The U.S. season-average soybean value for 2023-’24 is forecast at $12.40 per bushel, up 30 cents from final month. The soybean meal value is projected at $375 per quick ton, up $10. The soybean oil value forecast of 60 cents per pound is up 2 cents.
The USDA presently predicts 12.5 billion kilos of soybean oil will go to biofuel manufacturing for 2023-’24, a forecast maintained from the June WASDE. An estimated 11.6 billion kilos of soybean oil went to biofuel manufacturing in 2022-’23, up from 10.348 billion kilos in 2021-’22.
Globally, soybean manufacturing is elevated for Canada primarily based on the most recent plantings report from Statistics Canada. International soybean commerce for 2023-‘24 is down 3.1 million tons to 169.3 million as decreased U.S. exports are paired with decrease imports for China, Egypt, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Turkey, and Thailand. China’s imports are lowered 1 million tons to 99 million attributable to larger carryin provides from elevated imports within the prior advertising yr. International soybean ending shares are decreased 2.4 million tons to 121 million primarily on decrease U.S. shares.