This 12 months’s annual UN local weather talks, COP28, concluded in Dubai earlier this month with nations agreeing to the UAE Consensus.
After 30 lengthy years, we lastly have a world settlement that addresses a transition away from fossil fuels, the first driver of human-caused local weather change. It falls wanting the quick, truthful, and funded fossil gasoline phaseout that scientists, companies, well being specialists, and local weather activists have referred to as for, however nonetheless is a vital step ahead.
Now that we’re previous the preliminary headlines, it’s value taking inventory of what was actually achieved, the place the outcomes fell quick, and what’s subsequent for international local weather coverage.
COP28 outcomes fall quick
The core outcomes of COP28 are captured within the UAE Consensus, which features a sequence of agreements, together with a choice to operationalize the Loss and Harm Fund, the result of the First International Stocktake, and a choice on the International Aim on Adaptation.
Forward of COP28, UCS organized a letter from greater than 650 scientists to President Biden urging daring local weather motion, and I blogged concerning the 5 issues I’d be awaiting world leaders to perform. So, how did the negotiations and the ultimate set of agreements stack up towards these benchmarks for what the world wants to deal with the local weather disaster?
In a nutshell: there have been some shiny spots however general, the settlement falls quick in important methods and there’s arduous work forward to construct on what was secured in Dubai.
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Fossil gasoline pursuits on brazen show
COP28 featured a sobering–even infuriating–show of the brazen affect of fossil gasoline pursuits on international local weather coverage. A report variety of fossil gasoline lobbyists registered for the convention. Repeated scandals broke via within the information concerning the COP28 Presidency’s conflicts of curiosity and offhand feedback that seemingly denied the science. (My colleagues Kathy Mulvey and Delta Merner wrote about this). Saudi Arabia and OPEC states made clear their opposition to any language focusing on fossil fuels within the closing settlement.
These significantly problematic energy dynamics are additionally mirrored on the nationwide degree around the globe–together with in the USA the place fossil gasoline pursuits nonetheless maintain a powerful sway over insurance policies and policymakers–obstructing, delaying, and watering down local weather motion, and persevering with to develop oil and gasoline manufacturing at report ranges. We received’t achieve securing needed local weather motion until the ability of the fossil gasoline business is dismantled and they’re held accountable.
Key takeaways from COP28
As is at all times the case, the two-plus weeks of COP are extremely busy and stuffed with ups and downs. Whereas the negotiations type the core of the occasion, there are additionally bulletins of initiatives from completely different stakeholders—some substantive and a few merely window dressing. Aspect occasions and press conferences abound. Civil society actions play a outstanding position in making certain that the voices of individuals are represented, not simply the views of politicians and deep-pocketed companies.
Whereas there’s no technique to seize all the things that occurred in a single weblog put up, you could find extra info in further blogs my colleagues and I wrote earlier than and through COP28.
Listed here are a few of the highlights and lowlights from COP28:
Loss and Harm Fund is operationalized
On Day 1 of COP28, nations agreed to operationalize the Loss and Harm Fund, a big win for local weather justice that was many years within the making. Preliminary pledges to the fund add as much as just below $800 million. That features pledges from Italy ($108 million), France ($108 million), the UAE ($100 million), Germany ($100 million), and the US (a paltry $17.5 million). Whereas no new local weather fund has ever been arrange and capitalized so rapidly, the pledges to this point are a far cry from the billions that local weather weak low- and middle-income international locations want and deserve.
As we stay up for 2024, a brand new impartial board will have to be arrange for the fund, and the World Financial institution might want to exhibit that it could meet the situations to be the preliminary host for it. As soon as the operational particulars are squared away, funding can begin to circulate to international locations primarily based on standards decided by the board. Nations should additionally come ahead with rather more substantial funding for loss and injury as a part of the subsequent spherical of local weather finance pledges.
Many bulletins and facet initiatives
The opening days of COP28 had been stuffed with political bulletins from the high-level section and a myriad of facet initiatives, together with a number of from the USA. Vice President Harris addressed the summit and introduced a $3 billion pledge to the Inexperienced Local weather Fund. The U.S. additionally participated within the International Methane Pledge Ministerial and introduced closing EPA air pollution requirements to restrict methane emissions from oil and gasoline operations, a vital step to addressing the well being and environmental harms from these emissions.
The U.S. and a few companions additionally introduced subsequent steps for the Power Transition Accelerator. Very a lot a work-in-progress, and with some severe flaws, that is supposed to be a carbon offsets program for leveraging personal capital for a transition away from coal within the energy sector in creating international locations. My colleague Ed Lyman has additionally addressed important issues with the bulletins associated to tripling nuclear capability by 2050 and selling nuclear fusion.
Contentious debate over fossil gasoline phaseout language
The primary International Stocktake took middle stage at COP28, representing a key second for the world to evaluate progress on local weather motion relative to the objectives of the Paris Settlement and reply appropriately. With the most recent information displaying the worldwide emissions trajectory wildly off observe, civil society and plenty of climate-vulnerable nations led with a powerful name for a quick, truthful, and funded phaseout of all fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gasoline), whereas concurrently ramping up renewable power and power effectivity.
Whereas the decision for scaling up clear power discovered early buy-in from world leaders, it was clear from the outset that the equally pressing and needed name for a fossil gasoline phaseout would come up towards robust opposition from fossil gasoline pursuits and petrostates. The USA voiced help for addressing fossil fuels, however paradoxically it is also producing and exporting oil and fossil gasoline at report ranges. In the meantime, some low-income nations balked at agreeing to a phaseout with out finance from richer international locations to assist them make the clear power transition and shut the power poverty hole they face.
The primary iteration of the International Stocktake textual content on the “power bundle” was so weak that it was universally panned. Minister Cedric Schuster of Samoa, talking on behalf of the Affiliation of Small Island States (AOSIS), mentioned bluntly, “We is not going to signal our demise certificates.”
Minister John Silk of the Marshall Islands echoed that in press convention, saying, “We is not going to go silently to our watery graves.”
Unsurprisingly, COP28 went into time beyond regulation as nations struggled to succeed in settlement on stronger language on fossil fuels. Within the closing hours, an improved textual content–albeit nonetheless flawed–emerged and was agreed upon. It requires “Transitioning away from fossil fuels in power methods, in a simply, orderly and equitable method, accelerating motion on this vital decade, in order to attain web zero by 2050 in step with the science.”
As well as, the settlement requires globally tripling renewable power and doubling the annual price of power effectivity enhancements by 2030; phasing down coal-fired energy; accelerating deployment of zero- and low-emission applied sciences; accelerating reductions in methane emissions; accelerating the event of infrastructure and fast deployment of zero- and low-emission autos; and phasing out inefficient fossil gasoline subsidies that don’t handle power poverty or simply transitions.
Sadly, the textual content additionally accommodates regarding loopholes, akin to open-ended references to “transition fuels” and applied sciences like carbon seize and storage (CCS), which fossil gasoline pursuits might exploit as an excuse to extend the usage of fossil fuels. There may be additionally no assurance that richer nations will shoulder the accountability for offering funding to make an equitable international clear power transition attainable within the quick timeframe needed to satisfy the local weather problem.
Not sufficient progress on adaptation
Negotiations associated to the International Aim on Adaptation (GGA) fell nicely wanting what’s wanted and sadly didn’t get the identical degree of consideration as addressing fossil fuels. Due to many years of inadequate motion to chop heat-trapping emissions (aka mitigation), the world should now prioritize adaptation and constructing resilience to local weather impacts on par with actions to chop emissions. With out that, many countries–together with in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and small islands–will more and more face sharp setbacks to their financial improvement and social well-being as local weather extremes worsen.
The newest UN Adaptation Hole Report exhibits a niche of $194 billion to $366 billion per 12 months between what creating international locations must adapt to mounting local weather harms and what’s presently being offered by richer nations. But, the ultimate settlement ended up with weak textual content on adaptation and extremely inadequate commitments to spice up adaptation finance from richer nations. This contributed to a way of injustice, particularly for African nations which have already borne a very harsh burden of drought, flooding, displacement of individuals, and meals insecurity.
One potential avenue for enchancment is that the textual content requires convening a high-level ministerial dialogue subsequent 12 months on the pressing must scale up adaptation finance. It additionally, “Urges developed nation Events to organize a report on the doubling of the collective provision of local weather finance for adaptation to creating nation Events from 2019 ranges by 2025.”
Who can pay? Richer nations proceed to shirk their accountability.
Local weather finance continues to be a significant sticking level throughout the board in international local weather negotiations. It merely received’t be attainable to attain international local weather objectives on the pressing timeline we face until richer nations take the lead in offering scaled-up, grant-based public finance, alongside a spread of different sources akin to multilateral banks, personal entities, philanthropies, and revolutionary sources of finance, e.g. air pollution levies on fossil gasoline corporations.
A course of was agreed to at COP28 for nations to barter a brand new collective quantified objective (NCQG) for local weather finance to be determined at COP29. It might create a chance to deal with this long-standing problem—however provided that rich nations are prepared to lastly step as much as the plate.
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Now, the actual work begins
There’s no query that the UAE Consensus is flawed and inadequate—which can have actual and damaging penalties for folks on the frontlines of the local weather disaster.
Shortly after the settlement was gaveled via by the COP28 Presidency, Minister Anne Rasmussen of Samoa delivered a robust assertion voicing the deep disappointment of the Alliance of Small Island States. She mentioned, “It isn’t sufficient for us to reference the science after which make agreements that ignore what the science is telling us we have to do. This isn’t an method that we needs to be requested to defend.”
Moreover, worldwide agreements are solely nearly as good because the actions nations take to comply with up on them and reside as much as their collective accountability. There is no such thing as a international authorities that may impose top-down mandates; ramping up local weather ambition and a willingness to be truthful should come from home insurance policies and better worldwide cooperation. With the local weather disaster already so dire, richer nations like the USA can and may do extra to drive down emissions, present local weather finance, and handle loss and injury.
The settlement that emerged from Dubai, although imperfect, does nonetheless present an necessary step ahead and the area to battle for extra. The chance for that may come as nations work to submit their subsequent spherical of emissions discount pledges (additionally referred to as nationally decided contributions or NDCs) by 2025, in addition to new adaptation commitments and new local weather finance pledges (the NCQG). Connecting these international objectives to home insurance policies–together with federal, state, and native insurance policies in the USA–is essential to giving them actual heft and substance. And that may take political will and strain from the voting public.
UCS’s position at COP28
UCS has engaged as an Observer group in these international local weather negotiations since they first started, and I really feel privileged to be a part of a small group who was on the bottom in Dubai. Throughout these local weather negotiations, we engaged with many stakeholders from around the globe together with a world coalition of NGOs, the Local weather Motion Community. And, as a US-based NGO, we took significantly our accountability to place strain on our policymakers to ship on the worldwide stage, on condition that we’re the world’s richest nation and the most important historic contributor to international heat-trapping emissions.
At COP28, we had the chance to satisfy with, and straight talk our priorities to US Particular Envoy for Local weather John Kerry, the US negotiating group, staffers from the US Congressional delegation, and negotiators from different international locations. We had been impressed by the work of youth local weather activists, Indigenous activists and activists targeted on human rights and gender justice. We joined collectively in lots of highly effective public actions calling for science-aligned insurance policies and local weather justice. We additionally participated in facet occasions, press conferences and media interviews.
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The work at COP is usually an intense blur of lengthy days and nights and excessive highs and lows. It could really feel like transferring mountains to get policymakers to conform to daring and needed motion, particularly in such a contested area stuffed with fossil gasoline pursuits. As one may anticipate, negotiations at COP usually are not immune from geopolitical tensions and international political and financial energy dynamics.
And but there are superb moments of solidarity, inspiration, and style, when one feels the collective energy of the worldwide local weather justice motion. This 12 months, we felt that when the very weak preliminary textual content on fossil fuels was roundly rejected and we had been in a position to battle for and safe a greater end result. We felt that after we heard the Colombian minister for the setting, Susana Muhamad, talk about her nation’s heroic efforts to section out fossil gasoline manufacturing within the face of serious odds. And we felt that when ministers from the Marshall Islands and Samoa spoke up courageously, because the conscience of the world, for science and justice.
As irritating as it may be, COP is the one discussion board the place all nations, regardless of how small or huge, have a seat on the desk as world leaders make choices about our collective future.
I’m closing out this sobering 12 months–the most well liked 12 months on report to this point, one which was stuffed with devastating local weather extremes–with a glimmer of hope that we’re nearer to ending the lethal, polluting period of fossil fuels and ushering in a cleaner, more healthy future for all.
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